山东省新型冠状病毒肺炎老年病例的流行病学特征

Epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in the elderly in Shandong Province

摘要:

目的 初步分析山东省新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)老年病例的流行病学特征,为制定相应的疾病防控措施和对策提供理论依据。方法 对2020年1月22日0:00时至2月16日24:00时山东省及省内各地市卫生健康委员会官方公示的关于新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)疫情信息数据库进行分析,初步探讨该病老年病例在山东省的流行病学特征。采用SPSS 20.0进行统计分析。结果 纳入人群年龄(68.6±8.2)岁。截至2020年2月16日24:00时,山东省确诊老年病例95例,发病率为0.430/10万,治愈率为6.32%,病死率为2.11%。发病高峰是1月30日至2月9日。青岛病例最多(13例,13.68%),日照市病例最少(1例,1.05%),省内不同地区的老年发病率比较,差异有统计学意义(χ²=86.370,P<0.05)。60~69岁组、70~79岁组、80~89岁组、≥90岁组COVID-19发病率分别为0.463/10万、0.386/10万、0.041/10万、0.415/10万,差异亦有统计学意义(χ²=27.628,P<0.05)。COVID-19病例女多男少,男、女性别比为0.7∶1.0,但发病率比较差异无统计学意义(0.379/10万和0.501/10万,χ²=0.813,P>0.05)。此外,不同合并症数目的老年COVID-19发病率亦存在显著差异(F=82.557,P<0.05)。患者聚集性发病特征明显,占比为67.37%(64/95)。平均潜伏期为6.3d。结论 山东省2019-nCoV老年人发病处于相对较低水平,2020年1月22日出现首例后,发病高峰集中在1月30日至2月9日,2月10日起发病人数逐渐减少。病例男少女多,呈现聚集性发病特点,接下来应对本地人际传播防控工作进行重点安排。

Abstract:

Objective To primarily analyze the epidemiological characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), provisionally named 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the elderly in Shandong province, in order to provide theoretical basis for formulating control measures and countermeasures of the disease. Methods The epidemic data published by the authorities of public health committee of Shandong Province and its cities during January 22th to February 16th were collected and primarily analyzed in order to investigate the epidemiological characteristics of the disease in the elderly. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS statistics 20.0. Results The average age of the enrolled cases were (68.59±8.21) years. The infected elderly cases had reached 95 till 24:00 in Shandong province on February 16,2020. The incidence rate of COVID-19 was 0.65/0.1 million, cure rate 6.32%, and mortality rate 2.11% in the elderly. The peak incidence was from January 30th to February 9th. Qingdao had the most cases (13 cases, 13.68%), and Rizhao had the least (1 case, 1.05%). Significant differences were observed in the incidence among the different regions of Shandong Province (χ²=86.370, P<0.05). The incidence rates for the patients in the 60~69,70~79,80~89 and ≥90 years old groups were 0.463/0.1 million, 0.386/0.1 million, 0.041/0.1 million, and 0.415/0.1 million, respectively, with obvious differences among them (χ²=27.628, P<0.05). There were more female than male cases, and the ratio of male to female was 0.7∶1.0, but no statistical difference was seen between the genders (0.379/0.1 million vs 0.501/0.1 million, χ²=0.813, P>0.05). What's more, there were obvious differences in the incidence among the patients with different number of comorbidities (F=82.557, P<0.05). Cluster of cases were quite obvious, and they accounted for 67.37% (64/95). The mean incubation period of the disease was 6.3 d. Conclusion The incidence of COVID-19 for the elderly in Shandong Province is relatively low. Since the first case was found in January 22th, the peak incidence had been concentrated from January 30th to February 9 th, and the incidence has decreased gradually since February 10th. There are more females and fewer males in the infected, with the characteristics of clustering. Next, we should focus on the prevention and control of local interpersonal communication.