冠状病毒肺炎的流行趋势

Epidemiological patterns of coronavirus diseases

摘要:

目的 通过对历史上发生的3次冠状病毒肺炎[严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)、中东呼吸综合征(MERS)、新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)]流行数据的深入分析,探讨冠状病毒的传播特征与流行规律,探索疫情防控的关键节点,从而为公共卫生决策提供依据。方法 针对3种冠状病毒的累计感染例数、新增感染例数、累计死亡例数与时间的关系进行描述统计与时间趋势分析,并按疫情的地区分布进行COVID-19与 SARS亚组分析,进而比较不同地区疫情流行的异同点。采用SPSS 17.0对数据进行分析。结果 3种冠状病毒肺炎中,COVID-19的传染速率最大,病死率最低(2.96%)；MERS的传染速率最低,但病死率最高(30.49%)。COVID-19与SARS的流行规律相似,累计感染病例均是短期内迅速增长,累计感染曲线呈S型。而MERS主要以散发病例为主。结论 冠状病毒的传染性与致死性存在着一定的负相关关系,即传染性越强致死性越低。冠状病毒的防控关键点是疫情早期切断传播途径可有效控制疫情扩散。

Abstract:

Objective To provide helpful information for public health decision making, this study focused on the epidemic data of three coronavirus pandemics in history [severe acute respiratory syndrome(SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome(MERS), coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)], exploring the transmission characteristics and epidemiological patterns, and the key time points for epidemic control. Methods Descriptive statistics and time trend analysis were performed for the three epidemics in the respects of cumulative infection cases, new infections, cumulative deaths in relation to time. Subgroup analysis was further conducted of COVID-19 and SARS based on geographical regions to investigate the regional similarities and differences. SPSS statistics 17.0 was used for analysis. Results Among the three coronavirus pneumonia, COVID-19 had the highest infection rate and lowest mortality (2.96%), and MERS had the lowest infection rate and highest mortality (30.49%). COVID-19 and SARS were similar in the epidemiological patterns with a rapid increase of infections in a short period and S-shaped curves for cumulative infections, while MERS mainly featured sporadic infections. Conclusion There exists a negative correlation between the infectivity and lethality of coronavirus, i.e., the stronger the infectivity, the lower the lethality. The key to controlling the spread of coronavirus is to cut off the transmission routes effectively at the early stage.